Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Time to be euphoric?



"Stock market is a voting machine in the short term and weighing machine in the long term."

with a stable government in place a lot of things would be happened––India would be re-rated from the S&P or Moody’s point of view, the investment climate will improve and India would be a capital investment story. India’s growth rate improves to 6–6.5% that will account to about 20%–22% of the global growth. A country that gives such kind of growth cannot be ignored. So I expect $50 billion investments coming in the full year either in the form of FDI or Porfolio Investment. However,“I think retail investors should be cautious at this point in time.” One should focus on bottom up approach and invest in the stock at the appropriate level rather than looking at the market indices.

The double freeze at the circuit breaker may be a pleasant shock for sentimental purpose. The bulls may have enjoyed a pleasant day in the woods. But the fact remains we are not out of the woods as yet and never know which beast could cause trouble.

Plug into reality and you will realize this overdone ovation is a hope that the best brains would get their act together to decouple India from the myriad of woes plaguing the global economy. Clearly the exuberance has been overdone. Clearly there are several headwinds still to be tackled, both local and foreign.

The market has got into a nice rhythm and will see increased participation in terms of players as well as in terms of stocks. However I caution, it is important not to get carried away by the euphoria but still look for opportunities to increase exposure to equities.

There in no need to indulge in "Panic" buying as every market gives at least one opportunity to enter or exit at correct levels. However there are lots of investors who has left out the entire rally. Huge Liquidity is sitting on the fence to enter into the market which will provide enough support and cushion in the event of any pull back.

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